A small bet on a race can be a thrilling way to enjoy the action. While the more you know will generally enhance your chances of finding winners – and hence following this sport can give a lifetime of pleasure and achievement – even beginners can improve their odds by following a few simple rules. That is why they have been the world’s favourite betting medium for hundreds of year – you really can study the form (see below) and use it to pick winners. Not getting any younger at the age of seven but looked at the peak of his powers when smashing the course record at Newbury last time. He’s proven on softer ground and will get this race run to suit with plenty of competition for the lead. Danny Tudhope is a brilliant hold up rider and he looks a worthy favourite.
- Compare this to the first five years (2008 to 2012) where the average was 7.4.
- This is a ‘hands and heels’ handicap hurdle for amateurs and conditionals – whips not to be used.
- That said, there are still some strategies that can be deployed for leveraging opportunities in-play, though you would be advised to live stream the race while you’re betting on any in-play event.
- O’Brien’s exciting colt produced a massive performance in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot, flying home with a withering late run to topple some well-regarded prospects.
- So we have come a long way without having to delve too deeply into the form book.
- What is worth noting, however, is that 11 of the last 14 winners had raced fewer than ten times over fences and interestingly nine of the last 12 winners had worn some king of headgear (cheekpieces, hood or blinkers).
- In 2020, Ireland’s trainers saddled seven of the dozen runners, again taking top honours but this time ceding the consolation spots to the domestic quintet.
- I need to watch it again, but he looked pretty good today, and it’s exciting.
Relegate makes it nine Champion Bumper wins for Willie Mullins
Fast, frantic, furious, frenetic, ferocious and other adjectives beginning with ‘f’. Note that neither Gaelic Warrior nor Milldam have raced in UK or Ireland to this point. Their French form suggests both will be waited with to varying degrees.
What the snobs will never understand about the thrill of meeting the Queen – and I’ve done it THREE times
I’d rather take shorter when knowing the ground with him. In the end, I’m swerving The Goffer on the basis of the Irish record, which will of course be the wrong thing to do one of these years; but I definitely want a bit of the The Big Breakaway with the extended places as well. A bit of a wise guy horse on the preview circuit has been Mistergif, another Willie wunner, this one in the double green of Munir and Souede. Rated 75 or so on the flat in France, he failed to win in nine starts before trying hurdling. Under the new code, he was fifth in a Listed race on his debut and then second in a conditions event, both at Auteuil; but the horse that beat him on that final French start is zero from five (fallen three times, third once) since.
- They actually don’t run many – just three darts this year – and I’ll be fielding against them, perhaps carelessly.
- A horse with a string of 1s by their name is likely to be a lot shorter in the betting than one with 0s, for example.
- Again, we’re looking towards the extremes here, though, having said that, with the continued shrinkage of field sizes comes a problem for those one-paced galloping types.
- Firefox has also led in two of his last three, likewise Tellherthename.
- A firm favourite with punters for nearly two decades, the guide is now in its 23rd consecutive year and back better than ever before.
- Davy Russell will return to the saddle “in a fortnight or so” after spending 11 months on the sidelines with injuries to his neck and back.
Cheltenham Showcase Meeting Handicap Chase Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Showcase Meeting)
The silks are simply the colours each jockey will wear and denote who owns each horse, and then to the right we have the age of the horse and the weight they are set to carry in the race. Weights will vary if this race is a handicap – these are races in which horses are weighted according to their past performances – but in non-handicaps most horses will carry the same. Performances are influenced by factors such as a horse’s fitness, the distance of the race and whether the ground is soft and boggy or firm and fast. You can look at a horse’s past performances to work out whether the ground conditions will suit – and it’s understanding these crucial variables that can give punters the edge. VADREAM looks a spot of value to win this for a second time.
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This year it started on May 4 and runs until April 26, 2025. It’s such a thrilling sport and at its best when you get the chance to see the horses close up in the flesh. You can spend a wonderful afternoon or evening with friends, grab a drink, have a meal and, if you want, place a bet. Horses race over obstacles and on the flat – these are called, simply enough, jump racing and Flat racing.
It’s a day for hats
The winner that day was in receipt of a stone but faces those old foes off levels here. Stattler, representing Willie Mullins, might take a few betting pounds but his trainer is 0 from 15, four places, over the Festival banks and barrels. Get Your Tips Out is known as one of the top free tipsters in the horse racing industry.
Michael O’Leary, the owner, speaks
I thought he was very impressive that day at Cork and with this race being in similar conditions I’m expecting a similar performance. It was disappointing to see him beaten at odds-on last time out at Clonmel but it looked a tactical small field race off a steady pace which wouldn’t have suited him, and I think he was done for a bit of toe up the straight. The Mare’s Chase is being billed as a match this year and while I do think both Allegoire De Vassy and Imprevious are brilliant mares, I think the market has overlooked MAGIC DAZE.
More Royal Ascot previews, tips & features
Quite apart from the small field and deep ground, that result is flattering because Boothill looked booked for a certain second, within ten lengths or so of the winner, when ejecting two out. Connections mentioned after that 28th career start, Edwardstone’s first as a ten-year-old, that they’d worked out how to ride him. In any case, that chat is patent hogwash as a record of four wins from six completed starts – including the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase – when racing prominently asserts. Further, he won the Tingle Creek (G1) when held up so, you know, it’s not about the run style, is it? That said, such a sound bite implies he’ll want to go forward here and he is unlikely to be alone in that desire.
THE SUN RACING MEMBERS ENCLOSURE
Tom Queally’s mount still has the potential for better and is worth another go at this marathon trip. Reshoun returned to winning form at Newbury 13 days ago and is feared, along with stablemate Hydroplane and last year’s runner-up Withhold. Fourteen jump fixtures for us in the schedule for the week with a wide geographic spread. We start the week in Scotland with an extended seven race card at Ayr. Following quite a long spell of rain leading up to the meeting the going has now eased to Good to Soft.
Novices’ Chase result
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Horse racing tips: Newcastle, Southwell and Chelmsford – Thursday October 31
If we combine the clear favourite records of Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott and Henry De Bromhead, 39.1% of them won (54 wins from 138) for a profit of £27.25 (ROI +19.7%). The ‘rise’ of Irish runners will be a theme of this piece, and this can be seen when we look at a year by year breakdown of clear favourites that were trained in Ireland. As you can see, the win percentage / strike rate peaked in 2016 at 33.33%, whereas 2010, 2014 and 2017 saw percentages dip under half that figure. Eight of the years would have turned a profit, seven a loss. Hence one needs to be aware that results for runners priced 6/1 or shorter are difficult to predict for a one–off Festival, 28 races always being a small sample size.
Individual Horse Racing Racecards
Most likely is that the top two in the betting will mark each other behind the rags, with Vauban expected to be ridden cold at the back of the field. It will be frenetic, due to the field size and the number of jockeys having their first ride of the week. The first of nine handicaps and I’ll tell you now that my thoughts will be (mercifully) brief. This race has been won by the home team exclusively since Dun Doire and Tony Martin wrested it away in 2006. They actually don’t run many – just three darts this year – and I’ll be fielding against them, perhaps carelessly. There looks to be plenty of early speed in this line up with each of Ha d’Or, Dysart Dynamo and Jonbon leading in their most recent three races.
Billboard Star brings Group form to the table and gets in here off a lovely racing weight. GET ready for a bit of Jamie Spencer (below) magic on CARRYTHEONE. He looks like he belongs at this level, but conditions would be a concern. English Oaks looked smart when hacking up here in the Buckingham Palace.
Although GALOPIN DES CHAMPS has to prove himself over an extra two and a half furlongs, he has a touch of brilliance about him suggesting he can prevail in a Gold Cup. Bar an agonising fall at the final fence when well clear in last year’s Turners Novices’ Chase, he would be heading to Cheltenham looking for a third festival success, and he relishes spring ground. Still only seven years of age, he is also versatile regarding tactics and there is an awful lot to like about his credentials. Hunters Yarn is a horse that jumps off the page in this race. The stable have won this twice in the last 3 years and tend to have a good horse in it.
If you’d had the proverbial crystal ball and been able to predict every front-runner at HQ since 2009, you’d have been on to a very good thing as you can see from the table below, taken from geegeez’ Query Tool. ‘4’ signifies an early front runner, ‘3’ a prominent racer early, ‘2’ a midfield runner, and ‘1’ a hold up type. This particular race was won by the unexposed, and still unbeaten – now in three races – Hickory, who was a class above his rivals. As the result shows, he was good enough to travel on the heels of the speed, while the placed horses came from far back, even though typically this course and distance favours front-runners (see the green blob above the pace map).
I had Behind The Wire in at 5/2, he won strongly at an SP of 7/2 from 4/1. Bonus spins on selected games only and must be used within 72 hours. Winnings from Bonus spins credited as bonus funds and capped at £100.
Tips & Insights
As an eight-year-old he’s oodles of upside in this sphere and is clearly with the right man. Venetia Williams’ wildly experienced novice, Royale Pagaille, looks to have stamina as his strong suit. I was so taken with his outright demolition of a solid Graded handicap field in the G2 Peter Marsh at Haydock that I backed him for the Gold Cup. “She’s running in the Champion Hurdle”, all my friends tell me. But she’s the reigning champ in this race and the drying ground will make the two mile Champion more of a speed test than this two and a half mile contest.
The Williams team have excellent contacts in France and have a long history of recruiting nice hurdlers from across the channel. I’d love him to be up there from the outset as there isn’t much pace elsewhere in the race and that looks the best scenario for Jack Tudor to get a truly run race to suit. It must be a recurring issue they keep having to tinker with. Of course, if a horse keeps running badly you’d be wise to give it a wide berth, but ignoring one or two bad runs can lead you to back winners at decent prices.
KARMOLOGY looks the solid option in this competitive fillies’ handicap. She’s usually very consistent but never showed up at Yarmouth last time. Her earlier form is very useful and she can give weight and a beating to her rivals. The selection has no room for error off top-weight, but no one rides the straight course at Ascot better than Spencer. The micro-systems above will provide plenty of action for those who like a mechanical approach.
That is not, of course, because he can’t or won’t win; but rather that his price probably over-states his chance currently. On the other hand, many of Willie Mullins’s runners at Cheltenham over the years have worn earplugs which have not been declared, so the figures only tell part of the story. Favourites (Clear & joint) have won 3 of the last 10 renewals of the Mares Hurdle and have performed 44% worse than market expectations. Eight of the last 10 winners had an Official Rating of 147 or higher. Six of the last ten winners were trained by Willie Mullins (4) and Henry De Bromhead (2). It looks a minefield to be honest with most of the field potential improvers.
The only one really fitting the bill from a price perspective is Tanganyika who is second reserve. He is quite interesting on his run behind subsequent Grade Kyrov and Golden Son in France. Now with Venetia Williams, Tanganyika was beaten eight and a half lengths in that Auteuil race. Kyrov is currently rated 75kg (165), Golden Son 71 (156) and Tanganyika’s mark in France is 61.5 (135). Here, he has just 121, a full stone below his French rating.
More generously, it is the best opportunity to extend the winning sequence. In terms of potential rivals, Royale Pagaille has looked a mud machine this winter, but that one has numerous other possible engagements, principally the Gold Cup itself. Moreover, the two horses are in the same Ricci ownership and will surely attempt to divide and conquer. He has blitzed the best of the Irish this season, Bolts Up Daily and he did the same to the best of the British and Irish here last season over hurdles. Lousy puns aside, he won his beginners’ chase in a canter before being merely pushed out to record a pair of Grade 1 successes in recognised trials, by three lengths and then eleven lengths from the talented Latest Exhibition. At an each way price, she is the final leg of this magnificently sneaky seven.
Both the jump and Flat trainers’ championships run at the same time as the jockeys’ championships. However, there is a major difference in how the winner is determined as the trainers’ championship is decided by total prize-money rather than winners. In our new introduction to racing our experts have collated the most essential information to help you understand and enjoy this brilliant sport, including how to pick a winner, four must-know facts and how to watch the action. He has gone close a few times in these big handicaps and if his top rider can smuggle him through then he has every chance. Qirat is a worthy favourite having won a hot contest at Goodwood with a bit up his sleeve.
- As with all the reports, you can set parameters at the top to filter the day’s qualifiers.
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- There is currently little value in the early markets for this tight little handicap.
- However, with the benefit of expert insight, or even just a second pair of eyes, you can more readily identify the best betting options.
- Although he was a bit awkward early in transit that day, he powered through the line and was just on ten lengths clear of second-placed Inthepocket, Dark Raven a neck back in third.
- OK, so that last one, and probably/hopefully the last two, are of no consequence to Cheltenham, mercifully; but the others have each caused some degree of consternation in the weeks and months preceding the Festival.
The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Ayr, there has been a total number of 3 winners of this race who ran at Ayr last time out. How competitive is the Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 13 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2022 when the race had an over-round of 111%.
There will be plenty of interest in Black Corton, the mount of Bryony Frost. The pair have formed a formidable team this season and should be thereabouts. Elegant Escape has stamina as his strong suit and should make a bold show. Ballyoptic is too inconsistent to have too much faith in but there is no denying his ability. “But by the time he got to the winning post he was miles away and gone.
His pre-race RPR is 7lb superior to anything else in this race and 10lb clear of the top rated in the Supreme (Slade Steel, who he comprehensively beat last time). He’s got an almighty engine on him, and seems to be pretty versatile ground wise; the trip is fine and he can lead or race handily; and he’s jumped very well in the main. Horse racing in the UK is hotly watched by numerous parties, and since events happen all year round it is definitely worth looking into if you want to place a few bets.
